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With the arrival of the new year the beef market will rapidly adjust to changes in consumer buying habits. This will remove demand pressure from ribs and tenderloins, realigning the contribution of these most valuable beef cuts to a smaller percentage of carcass value
Few things in cattle market trends are entirely predictable but the fact that carcass weights peak in November is as close to a sure bet as one could identify. Genetic selection for growth and advancing mature size has fueled the long-term increase in carcass weights.
We focused on fourth-quarter middle meat demand as a beef price driver in the last edition of the Insider. This is certainly the case in the current data as rib and tenderloins are pricing near their annual highs. However, a look at annual price trends across the beef carcass shows increasing contributions to CAB premiums from both ends of the carcass.
At the retail level, November brings a brief shift in focus, away from beef to turkey and ham, for Thanksgiving meals. Turkeys are the classic “loss leader” item in grocery stores during November as retailers practically give them away to lure a volume of shoppers to spend on the high-margin center of the store goods.
In this CAB Insider,shifting market dynamics have already marked trend changes in the 2023 cattle and beef markets. These shifts are most succinctly summarized through two factors, fewer cattle and higher prices, that will further entrench themselves in near term trends.
The recently published “Industry Insights” report conducted by CattleFax analysts in partnership with Angus Media revealed several interesting trends and attitudes from the feedyard and cow-calf sectors. Focusing on feedyard factors most relevant to the CAB brand and end-product merit shows attitudes and behavior aligned with the market’s pull-through demand signals
Heavier carcasses typically coincide with richer marbling and higher quality grades. But seasonal grade trends simply push quality lower this time of year as USDA’s grading report for the September 11 week shows an abrupt leg down in percent USDA Choice
Total carcass cutout prices have tended to increase during August in most recent years, but round cuts are holding the stronger price spike this season longer into September due to the substitution effect noted in this update.
In the waning days ahead of Labor Day spot market beef prices are posting positive numbers, boosting a bit of optimism into the total beef complex. Historically, the uptrend will subside following the holiday, and wholesale prices will seek an early fall low mid-October.